Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-23.
Estimate momentum
The FY28 normalized-EPS mark has dropped from about $54.7 ninety days ago to $45.5 today; revenue for the same year is off roughly 2% over that window.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | $47.37 | $47.54 | $44.67 | $44.50 | -6.4% |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028 | $46.51 | $54.69 | $47.17 | $45.46 | -16.9% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | $55.30bn | $54.43bn | $53.90bn | $53.75bn | -1.3% |
| Revenue | FY2028 | $56.24bn | $54.92bn | $54.11bn | $53.84bn | -2.0% |
Revenue keeps printing in-line; normalized EPS has missed three of the last four quarters
Revenue surprises have stayed inside ±1% every quarter, so guidance reads as fair-value on the top line while the earnings line is where estimates and prints keep diverging.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 1 consecutive beat; EPS (normalized): 1 consecutive miss.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | $13.54bn | $13.60bn | +0.4% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2026 | EPS (normalized) | $10.07 | $9.17 | -9.0% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | $13.73bn | $13.60bn | -1.0% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $9.83 | $10.42 | +6.1% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2025 | Revenue | $13.75bn | $13.67bn | -0.6% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $9.32 | $8.34 | -10.5% | Miss |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | $13.76bn | $13.77bn | +0.0% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $9.77 | $9.18 | -6.1% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | $13.67bn | $13.73bn | +0.5% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2025 | EPS (normalized) | $8.59 | $8.42 | -2.0% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | $13.88bn | $13.93bn | +0.3% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $9.17 | $10.10 | +10.2% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | $13.66bn | $13.79bn | +1.0% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $8.49 | $8.82 | +3.9% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | $13.60bn | $13.69bn | +0.7% | Beat |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | $8.00 | $8.49 | +6.2% | Beat |
Flat revenue and EBITDA, but EPS and free cash flow keep climbing as net debt falls
Free cash flow rises from roughly $4.9bn in FY26 toward $8.4bn in FY29 as net debt falls from about $93bn to $81bn, the mechanism behind EPS growth on a flat top line.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $54.22bn | $53.75bn | $53.84bn | $53.69bn | -1.0% | 18 | $53.94bn / $54.37bn |
| EBITDA | $22.43bn | $22.05bn | $21.98bn | $22.51bn | -1.2% | 18 | $21.46bn / $22.81bn |
| EPS (normalized) | $41.96 | $44.50 | $45.46 | $45.26 | +15.6% | 9 | $37.45 / $48.94 |
| Free cash flow | $4.91bn | $6.16bn | $7.32bn | $8.43bn | -1.6% | — | — |
| Net debt | $93.41bn | $90.52bn | $86.72bn | $80.96bn | — | — | — |
Where the street disagrees
The FY28 EPS range rests on single-digit analyst counts—read it as uncertainty, not a consensus view.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Spread/mean is absolute high-low divided by absolute mean.
| Metric | Period | Mean | Low–high | Spread/mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | FY2027E | $22.05bn | $20.36bn–$22.91bn | 11.6% | 16 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027E | $44.50 | $32.79–$51.29 | 41.6% | 9 |
| EPS (normalized) | FY2028E | $45.46 | $29.24–$55.13 | 56.9% | 7 |
Street snapshot
The mean target near $210 sits well below the $413 high, and eleven of the covering analysts rate the stock hold against five buys.
Currency: USD · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 5, Outperform 0, Hold 11, Underperform 2, Sell 3 | 21 |
| Consensus score | 2.90 | 21 |
| Target price | mean $209.9; median $190.0; high $413.0; low $120.0 | 17 |
Outer-year coverage thins sharply
FY29 revenue and EBITDA rest on four analysts and FY28 normalized EPS on seven, versus 16–19 covering the current year; treat the outer-year means and ranges shown here as fragile.