Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 19 brokers · 441 line items · freshest revision 2026-07-22.
The street models Charter as a business with roughly flat revenue and EBITDA where nearly all the value creation comes from a capex cliff and a shrinking share count. Mobile is the sole growth engine, adding lines and revenue while broadband loses subscribers and video and voice decline. Broadband revenue holds up because ARPU rises even as subscribers fall. The real debate is not the near term but how far free cash flow per share climbs by FY-2028 as spending winds down and buybacks continue.
Free cash flow is the story: capex rolls off and FCF/share inflects sharply higher
EBITDA barely moves across the set, so the entire free-cash-flow ramp is a capex-cliff story as line-extension and rural-build spending winds down.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash flow | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow - Company defined | $4.90bn | $4.91bn | $6.04bn | $7.58bn | +0.3% | 17 |
| Free Cash flow per share - Company defined($) | $35.07 | $40.35 | $57.21 | $88.77 | +15.1% | 17 |
| Spend | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Purchases of property, plant and equipment | $11.51bn | $11.43bn | $9.49bn | $7.87bn | -0.7% | 17 |
| Line extensions- Capex | $4.01bn | $3.24bn | $2.30bn | $1.95bn | -19.2% | 15 |
| Profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA - operating | $22.62bn | $22.51bn | $22.12bn | $22.19bn | -0.5% | 19 |
Mobile is the only growth engine as legacy lines fade
Mobile now carries the top line; broadband revenue is roughly flat while video and voice shrink every year, leaving total revenue essentially flat across the models.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile (growth) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Residential - Mobile service revenue | $3.80bn | $4.35bn | $4.89bn | $5.44bn | +14.7% | 18 |
| Total mobile lines(K#) | 11.87m Number | 13.29m Number | 14.69m Number | 15.94m Number | +12.0% | 13 |
| Legacy (fading) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Residential - Internet revenue | $23.79bn | $23.38bn | $23.16bn | $23.00bn | -1.7% | 18 |
| Residential - Video revenue | $13.79bn | $12.64bn | $12.05bn | $11.58bn | -8.3% | 18 |
| Residential - Voice revenue | $1.36bn | $1.25bn | $1.10bn | $970.29m | -8.0% | 18 |
Broadband: subscribers keep eroding, pricing holds the revenue
The models have broadband losing subscribers every year with net losses not narrowing, yet residential internet ARPU rises through the period - pricing, not volume, defends the segment.
| Line | FY-2025A | FY-2026E | FY-2027E | FY-2028E | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total internet subscribers(K#) | 29.66m Number | 29.18m Number | 28.69m Number | 28.18m Number | -1.6% | 17 |
| Internet - net adds(K#) | -416,437 Number | -503,039 Number | -489,421 Number | -505,651 Number | -20.8% | 17 |
| Price | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ARPU - Residential Internet($) | $71.19 | $71.12 | $71.61 | $72.33 | -0.1% | 17 |
Where brokers split: FY-2028 free cash flow and the buyback pace
The debate is not this year's numbers but how fast capex falls and buybacks shrink the share count by FY-2028; the quartiles show a wide, economically material range.
| Line | Period | Median | Q1–Q3 | Min–max | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow - Company defined | FY-2028E | $7.82bn | $7.25bn–$8.12bn | $5.99bn–$8.78bn | 13 |
| Free Cash flow per share - Company defined($) | FY-2028E | $83.64 | $80.06–$99.40 | $65.35–$119.4 | 8 |
| Capital expenditures excluding line extensions | FY-2028E | $6.05bn | $5.89bn–$6.27bn | $5.01bn–$6.91bn | 12 |
| Weighted average shares outstanding - Diluted(M#) | FY-2028E | 96.75m Number | 80.65m Number–107.50m Number | 65.48m Number–120.72m Number | 11 |
| EPS-Diluted($) | FY-2028E | $53.31 | $48.11–$66.34 | $39.24–$78.54 | 12 |
Buybacks turn flat cash flow into rising per-share value
Every model keeps repurchasing stock, cutting the diluted share count in each of the four years; that is why free cash flow per share and EPS climb far faster than the roughly flat EBITDA and revenue beneath them.
Coverage thins in the outer years and on the capex splits
Headline lines carry 13 to 17 brokers on fresh July 2026 marks, but FY-2028 FCF/share rests on 8 brokers, total mobile revenue on 6, and rural-construction capex on as few as 5 - read the outer-year spread as real uncertainty, not noise.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.